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Story 1: The U.S. Hits Pause on Iran War as President Ponders Next Move

For the first time in two weeks, U.S. bombers didn’t strike Iran on Friday night. Whether the lull in action stays, remains to be seen.

A defense official says U.S. strikes are now “on a hold” after 13 straight nights of bombing, with diplomacy reportedly the preferred next move as President Trump mulls whether a full-scale war is worth it.

Meanwhile, Iran and Oman are holding talks over reoening the Strait of Hormuz that Iran’s government calls “productive.” Iran effectively closed the shipping route months ago.

Despite all this, President Trump isn’t calling this war over. “We’re locked and loaded,” he told reporters Friday, while adding that he’s also “not in a hurry” to wrap things up, midterms be damned.

Context and Background

The back-and-forth ceasefire

Let’s back up a bit. The Iran War started on February 28, when Israel—with help from U.S .intelligence—killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, kicking off a two-month air war. A ceasefire came in April, extended indefinitely a few weeks later. Then between June and now, a back-and-forth, not-quite-ceasefire that was often violated before it even got a chance to take hold.

Both sides blame the other for the collapse. Iran says the U.S. never fully lifted its “chokehold” on Iranian oil exports; the U.S. says Iran never gave up trying to control the Strait.

The reasons the President is hesitating

According to the New York Times, citing officials briefed on internal discussions, a few things are giving Trump’s team pause before advancing with more military strikes:

• Running low on defenses: The Pentagon has burned through more than 1,200 Patriot interceptor missiles (at roughly $4 million each) since the war began, and officials worry a bigger strike campaign would leave US troops in the region dangerously exposed.
• Nervous allies: Gulf countries hosting American military bases—including Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait—have already taken Iranian fire once. A bigger U.S. offensive risks inviting harder retaliation against the very countries who are most vulnerable to it.
• The economy: Gas prices are already up 38% since the war began, sitting at $4.11 a gallon nationally as of this week, per CNN — a real political liability heading into the midterms.

Some advisers, including Jared Kushner, reportedly favor sticking with negotiations and economic pressure rather than a bigger military push, per the Times.

Is diplomacy even a possibility?

While diplomacy sounds on paper like the best option (who actually likes war?), the reality is, it’s not easy to negotiate with an theocratic, authoritarian regime. So let’s talk about…

Why diplomacy might not work:

• Simply put, Iran doesn’t have a good track record for negotiating in good faith. And it’s not just Washington that’s run into trouble here. Since Israel’s 12-day war with Iran in 2025, Iran has blocked United Nations nuclear inspectors from visiting its enrichment sites, despite its own commitments under international nuclear agreements. A May 2025 IAEA report went further, concluding that Iran ran a coordinated, undeclared nuclear program, including activities relevant to producing nuclear weapons, that it never disclosed to inspectors, and found Iran’s cooperation with the agency “less than satisfactory.”
  
  Add to that the criticism that some foreign policy experts had during this war about the ceasefire from the start, saying it left Iran’s nuclear program and the war in Lebanon completely unresolved, while asking Iran to give up its main leverage (the Strait) in exchange for sanctions relief. Vice President J.D. Vance even called the ceasefire“fragile” back in April when it was still fresh, adding that Washington wouldn’t hesitate to use “drastic tools” if Iran didn’t negotiate “in good faith.”

Why diplomacy could work:

• Despite all the reasons it seems like diplomacy might not work, talks are happening again between Iran and Oman as they discuss arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz, but whether this round yields better, more lasting results, remains to be seen.

What Congressional leaders are saying

Congress is split on whether or not to advance the Iran War, and not entirely along party lines. On Thursday, the House passed a resolution (214-208) pushing Trump to end the war; the Senate narrowly rejected a similar one the same day, 47-49.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries was blunt in his comments, saying, “No more American heroes need to die because of this reckless war of choice.” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer added, “Americans are not ‘impressed’ that Trump has botched this war from the start.”

On the Republican side, the ask has been less about ending the war and more about Congress having a real say in it. “I think it’s clear that it is time for Congress to act,” Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah) told NOTUS, adding that doesn’t necessarily mean constraining the president, “but in fact defining what this looks like.”

Why You Should Care About the Iran War

Whether this pause in fighting extends, or ends and turns into more military action, the outcome impacts multiple things—your wallet (gas prices); American troops’ future, as roughly 50,000 US troops are in the region; and the worldwide geopolitical landscape. A wider war could pull in other players, including Israel, which has notably sat out the recent strikes; and Gulf allies are already caught in the crossfire. All of this will reshape alliances in the region for years to come, and potentially impact security for Americans abroad and at home.

What to Follow

• Does the pause turn into an actual, lasting break in the fighting, or is this just a breather before another escalation?
• What happens when Netanyahu visits Washington next week? Israel’s been notably absent from the recent U.S. strikes.
• Do the Iran-Oman talks over the Strait of Hormuz produce anything concrete this time?
• Will gas prices keep climbing if the Iran War drags into a sixth month?
• Does Congress take any further action on war powers as the conflict continues?

I hope you’ll join me on Substack! Click here to read the rest of this post, including a look at recent hate-fueled violence, two federal rules that will change immigration, and more.